Climate migration is a type of movement caused by the effects of sudden or slow climate-related events, such as heavy rainfall, long-term droughts, desert expansion, harm to the environment, rising sea levels, or strong storms. Slow changes in the environment usually affect more people than sudden disasters. Most climate migrants move within their own countries, while a smaller number leave their countries entirely.
Climate change causes large-scale movement of people worldwide. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reports that about 20 million people are forced to move to different areas in countries around the world each year because of weather-related events. Climate-related disasters often harm groups that already face challenges in areas at risk from climate effects. A 2021 report from the White House explained how climate change and related migration affect communities, make resources harder to find, and increase political conflicts.
Few international rules or laws at the regional or national level offer enough protection for climate migrants. However, the UN Dispatch noted, "People displaced by climate change live everywhere in the world—even though the global community has been slow to recognize them." Because of this, climate migration is sometimes called "the world's silent crisis," since it is widespread but not widely acknowledged or studied. Estimates of climate-related displacement vary, but all show a growing problem. Some predictions suggest that about 200 million people could be displaced by climate-related disasters by 2050. Other estimates suggest up to 1 billion people might be displaced by 2050, but these include other threats like conflict, civil unrest, and disasters in addition to ecological dangers.
Causes
Climate migrants are people who move because of changes in the climate, such as very heavy rains, long droughts, desertification, harm to the environment, rising sea levels, or strong storms. Climate change is making natural disasters more intense, which can affect many people and create a large number of climate migrants. Over the past 50 years, the number of disasters has increased five times. In addition to more frequent and stronger disasters, rising temperatures caused by global warming will lead to more droughts and melting snow and ice, which will cause sea levels to rise.
Changes in the environment that happen slowly often affect more people than sudden disasters. Between 1979 and 2008, storms affected 718 million people, while droughts affected about 1.6 billion. Sudden events like strong storms and natural disasters can damage important buildings, flood homes, disrupt transportation, overload hospitals, cause shortages of food and water, harm energy systems, and threaten health. These events can seriously harm communities and make recovery difficult. Slow changes, such as famines, droughts, and other resource shortages and economic losses caused by climate change, may lead to conflicts, political problems, climate gentrification, and long-term health issues from living in unhealthy environments. Droughts and slowly rising temperatures have mixed effects, but they are more likely to cause lasting changes.
Rising sea levels are a common topic in environmental discussions. Sea levels are expected to rise between 90 and 180 centimeters (about 3 to 6 feet) by 2100. This means that land areas will gradually be covered by water. On average, sea levels have risen 3.7 millimeters each year. These facts show serious risks for coastal cities and ecosystems, which could force many people to move.
Climate justice and adaptation
Migration and environmental change can be viewed in different ways. Migration may be considered a human rights issue or a security issue. When migration is seen as a human rights issue, it focuses on creating systems to protect people who move. When migration is treated as a security issue, it may lead to stronger border controls. Both views can be used together, ensuring that national needs are met while respecting human rights.
Climate adaptation projects, which prepare communities for climate dangers and respond to climate change, can help communities become more resilient. However, these projects might also cause climate gentrification, a process where efforts to reduce climate risks lead to wealthier people moving into areas where less wealthy people live. Coastal cities and higher-elevation areas, which are often home to less wealthy people, are now becoming more attractive as rising sea levels and extreme weather events affect wealthier areas near the water.
By improving resilience, these projects can reduce the need for people to move due to climate challenges. Different levels of support are given to help neighborhoods, cities, and countries adapt to climate change and related migration. This is especially important because certain groups, such as people in small island nations, rural areas, communities of color, low-income families, the elderly, people with disabilities, coastal cities, and developing countries, are more likely to suffer from climate effects and face environmental migration. Just as people and countries do not all cause the same amount of climate change, they also do not all face the same negative effects. Both short-term and long-term climate changes can harm underprepared communities and worsen existing inequalities. People whose jobs depend on the environment, like farmers, fishers, and those in coastal businesses, may also lose their homes or jobs because of climate change. If communities cannot adapt well, migration may become the main solution.
Climate migrants may move within their own country or to another country because of climate change. Most climate migration happens internally, meaning people move within their own country and do not cross international borders. In 2022, weather-related events caused nearly 32 million people to move within their own countries. In poorer countries, where people are more vulnerable to disasters due to weak climate adaptation, individuals often lack the resources needed for long-distance migration.
In some cases, climate change may limit migration by making it harder for people to move, leading to fewer people migrating overall. When migration does happen, it is often seen as a choice made for economic reasons. In some situations, climate change could also increase economic hardship or political problems, which may cause migration beyond just temperature changes or extreme weather. When climate change affects people, who moves and who stays often depends on race and wealth, as moving usually requires some financial resources.
Global statistics
In 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated that the most serious effect of climate change could be the movement of people, with millions forced to leave their homes because of rising sea levels, flooding, and dry conditions.
Most reports predict that between 150 and 200 million people could be displaced by climate change by 2050. This idea has been included in important studies by the IPCC, the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, and groups like Friends of the Earth, Greenpeace Germany, and Christian Aid. It has also been mentioned by international organizations such as the Council of Europe, UNESCO, and UNHCR. Some estimates suggest as many as 1.2 billion people might be affected by climate-related migration due to environmental problems, including conflicts over resources like water. Other reports focus only on direct effects of climate change, such as rising sea levels or droughts.
Predictions about climate-related migration often depend on the number of people living in areas at risk, not the actual number of people who might move. These predictions sometimes ignore how people might adapt or how different groups face different levels of risk. Hein de Haas, a researcher, has argued that linking climate change to large-scale migration is based on myths rather than facts. He believes that using extreme predictions to push for action on climate change is misleading and harms the credibility of climate change efforts. He also notes that while climate change may not cause mass migration, it can have the greatest impact on people who are already struggling and cannot easily move to safer places.
According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), more than 117 million people were displaced worldwide by the end of 2023, with 68.3 million still living in their own countries but unable to return home. Many of these displacements are linked to environmental and climate-related issues. The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) reported that 7.7 million people were living in internal displacement in 2023 because of disasters, showing how climate-related events are increasingly causing migration.
The IDMC’s 2024 Global Report on Internal Displacement states that, as of the end of 2023, 7.7 million people in 82 countries and territories were living in internal displacement due to disasters, including those caused by climate change.
Although climate-related migration is sometimes seen as a distant problem, extreme weather events are already pushing people from their homes in many parts of the world. In 2021, storms, floods, landslides, wildfires, and droughts caused 23.7 million internal displacements, according to the IDMC. This represented 60% of all internal displacements that year.
Statistics by region
Many discussions about migration rely on predictions rather than current data. Migration caused by sudden events like hurricanes, wildfires, heavy rain, floods, and landslides is often short, forced, and temporary. Events that develop slowly, such as droughts and rising temperatures, have more varied effects but are more likely to cause long-term changes.
Climate-related migration is a complex issue that must be understood as part of global migration patterns. Migration usually has many causes, and environmental factors are connected to other social and economic issues, which can also be affected by environmental changes. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) noted that climate change and environmental harm often "interact with other reasons for displacement" that fit the refugee definition.
It is also true that poor people often live in areas most at risk from environmental harm and climate change, such as coasts, flood-prone areas, and steep slopes. Because of this, climate change threatens places already dealing with extreme poverty. "The issue of fairness is important. Climate change affects everyone, but not everyone equally," said UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon at a climate conference in Indonesia.
Africa has 80% of the world's refugees, and this number is expected to grow with climate change. Africa is a region where environmental displacement is especially serious, mainly due to droughts and other climate-related events. The United Nations Environment Programme said, "No continent will be hit as hard by climate change as Africa." Many African countries are ranked as highly vulnerable to climate change and unlikely to adapt to its effects. Existing conflicts, poverty, and displacement in Africa may make climate migrants less visible, but these problems often worsen the challenges faced by people forced to move because of environmental issues.
Drought has become a major problem with climate change. At least one-third of Africa's population lives in areas prone to drought, making them vulnerable. Drought conditions are expected to change the lives of nearly 100 million Africans by 2050. As droughts worsen, they increase desertification, reducing the amount of land that can be used for living. Desertification harms agriculture, which lowers food supplies. This connection between desertification and food shortages is clear in the Sahel region, where between 14.4 and 23.7 million people faced hunger in 2020 and 2021.
In addition to droughts, other parts of Africa face more intense storms and flooding during monsoon seasons. In Sudan in 2014, a storm caused flooding that displaced 159,000 people. In Somalia, heavy rains in 2023 led to flash flooding that displaced nearly 250,000 people.
In the Lake Chad basin, worsening conflicts and displacement have been linked to droughts, floods, and the shrinking of the lake due to climate change. The loss of natural resources is increasing tensions in the region and has displaced 3 million people.
The Middle East is dealing with a serious refugee crisis, and climate change is expected to create even more refugees. Syria is the leading country in the refugee crisis, mainly because of social conflicts. Since 2011, over 14 million Syrians have been displaced. A severe drought between 2007 and 2010 worsened the Syrian conflict. This was the worst drought on record, causing major problems for farming and leading many farmers to move to cities. The drought helped start the Syrian civil war. These environmental issues show that many Syrians can be considered climate migrants, as climate factors indirectly contributed to the war. Repeated droughts from 2006 to 2011 forced many farmers to leave rural areas for cities, where resources became strained. Over one million Syrians have fled the country since the war began, mostly resettling in neighboring Turkey. Severe flooding in Pakistan caused large-scale internal migration in 2022.
Extreme heat is another source of environmental stress in the Middle East. With its hot desert climate, the Middle East is expected to reach summer temperatures as high as 46°C by 2050. These extreme temperatures have already occurred, though rarely, and have made parts of the region difficult to live in. These conditions are expected to increase the number of climate migrants, as people seek cooler and more livable areas.
According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, more than 42 million people in Asia and the Pacific were displaced by sudden natural disasters between 2010 and 2011. This includes those displaced by storms, floods, heat waves, cold waves, droughts, and rising sea levels. Most people who left their homes returned when conditions improved, but some became migrants, often within their country or across borders.
A 2012 study by the Asian Development Bank said climate-induced migration should be part of a country's development plan, because migration has major effects on economic and social progress. The report suggests helping both those who have moved and those still living in areas at risk from environmental problems. It says, "To reduce migration caused by worsening environmental conditions and to help communities at risk, governments should create policies and fund efforts to improve social protection, livelihoods, urban infrastructure, and disaster risk management."
Because of rising sea levels, as many as 70,000 people in the Sundarbans may be displaced by 2020, according to an estimate by the Center for Oceanographic Studies at Jadavpur University. One expert suggests restoring the Sundarbans' original mangrove habitats to reduce the effects of rising seas and storm surges, and to help absorb greenhouse gas emissions.
In India, 650 families from the Satbhaya community in Odisha, displaced by rising sea levels and coastal erosion, are part of a planned relocation program by the state government. While this program provides homes and basic services, it also needs to support livelihoods like farming and fishing, which are important for the relocated people.
In Minqin County, Gansu Province, "10,000 people have left the area and have become shengtai yimin, 'ecological migrants.'" In Xihaigu, Ningxia, water shortages caused by climate change and deforestation have led to several government-ordered relocations since 1983.
The Republic of the Marshall Islands is one of four atoll nations highly vulnerable to rising sea levels. Over a third of the population has moved to the United States, where about 30,000 Marshallese now live, especially in Hawaii, Arkansas, and Washington. While few Marshallese migrants in the U.S. say climate change is their main reason for moving, many say it influences whether they return to the Marshall Islands someday.
Climate change has increased the likelihood and intensity of wildfires in Canada. Wildfires have caused immediate dangers in several regions.
Political and legal perspectives
The International Organization for Migration (IOM) believes that more people will move globally because of faster climate change. It suggests that governments should act early to address this issue. However, current laws are not strong enough to protect people who move because of climate problems. Many international and local laws do not give these people the same rights as refugees. Usually, climate migrants are not considered refugees, so they do not get the same legal help as people fleeing war or violence. In the Americas, people displaced by environmental issues may receive humanitarian visas or temporary protection, but these options do not always allow them to stay permanently or become citizens. While the word "refugee" is not legally correct for climate migrants, the idea of "climate change refugees" has been created to help explain the situation. Everyone affected by environmental harm deserves help and protection based on human needs.
A report from the International Refugee Assistance Project (IRAP) suggests that new legal ways should be made for people moving because of climate change or environmental damage. The report also says that governments should improve how they protect people forced to leave their homes because of climate change. It stresses that better legal help for climate-displaced people should be planned before disasters happen, not just after.
The International Law Commission (ILC) gives advice about how to protect people who are displaced by disasters. Its Draft Articles on the Protection of Persons in the Event of Disasters says that large-scale movement caused by disasters should be included in the definition of “disaster.” The United Nations Human Rights Committee (UNHRC) recently ruled that countries must not send people back to places where climate change threatens their lives. In one case, Teitota v. New Zealand, the UNHRC said that people who moved across borders because of climate change could ask the UNHRC for help if they were sent back to unsafe places after trying all other options. In January 2020, the UN Human Rights Committee said that people fleeing climate change cannot be forced to return to their home countries if those places are dangerous because of climate problems.
The Environmental Justice Foundation (EJF) says that people who must move because of climate change are not properly recognized in international laws. EJF argues that a new international agreement is needed to help protect people fleeing environmental harm. They also say that more money is needed to help developing countries adapt to climate change. Sujatha Byravan and Sudhir Chella Rajan suggest using the term “climate exiles” and creating international agreements that give these people rights, such as citizenship in other countries, while considering the abilities of those countries.
A country may be less willing to accept environmental migrants if it has other problems. In Canada, there is interest in planning and helping people who move because of climate change. In 2016, Canada’s Prime Minister Trudeau told the UN that only resettling people would not be enough. Sweden, which once allowed people fleeing war to enter easily, now has stricter rules for asylum seekers and even offers money for people to withdraw their applications. The United States was warned by the Obama administration to prepare for climate change and its effects, but under President Trump, the country did not take action. Trump denied climate change, removed climate-related information from government websites, and avoided planning for people displaced by climate change.
A country gives “asylum” when it allows someone to stay safely without being sent back to their home country. Each country has its own rules about asylum. The United States has a system that follows both federal and international laws. France was the first country to legally recognize the right to asylum. Asylum rules vary by country, and some places still fight for the right to asylum.
In 2021, a French court stopped the deportation of a man from Bangladesh who has asthma because his lawyer said he would face serious health problems due to air pollution in his home country. Heavy floods also hit Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh in July 2021.
In 2021, the Biden administration in the United States shared reports from intelligence agencies that showed how climate change could harm global stability. The reports said climate change will make food shortages worse, increase droughts, fires, and flooding, and raise sea levels. Some of the most vulnerable countries, like Guatemala, Haiti, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iraq, are in areas that are especially at risk from climate change. These countries have weak governments and are struggling to deal with the effects of climate change. In February 2021, President Biden signed an order asking the National Security Council to find ways to help and resettle people displaced by climate change.
In October 2021, the Biden administration released a new report about climate migration. It said the United States should help climate migrants worldwide by using foreign aid, sharing technical knowledge, and building the skills of other countries. The report said the government should focus more on climate migration and increase funding to support these efforts. It also said the government should treat climate migration as an important issue that needs more attention in the future.
Planning for climate migrants
Planning for climate migration means getting ready for people leaving areas that are at risk from climate changes and for people moving to cities. Experts say that solving problems related to climate migration needs plans that include many fields of study, are based on local knowledge, and are fair and easy to use. Cities can think about ways to be more welcoming to people who move there, such as offering training for jobs, safe and affordable homes, access to parks, public transportation that is easy to use, and help with language or cultural differences. Extra support and clear information can help meet the needs of people with disabilities or mental health challenges, both during emergencies and after. Building flood barriers and other strong structures can protect cities from bad weather. Including these ideas in planning now can help cities prepare for the worst effects of climate change before they happen.
Sustainable development, emergency plans, and local planning can help reduce the effects of climate migration. For some people, it might be too late to prevent problems, so moving to safer places might be the only choice. People whose jobs depend on the environment, like farmers and fishers, may need to move to survive. A recent article in the New York Times and Pulitzer Center said that compared to people in other parts of the world, Americans have more money and are less affected by climate changes. They are not directly connected to where their food and water come from, and they believe that money and technology can solve any problem. Census data shows that many Americans move to places with heat, coasts, or droughts, even though these areas are becoming more dangerous. This belief that money and technology can fix nature-related problems has influenced how people in the United States live. These differences are seen in how people buy homes along coasts and build cities. Fixing climate migration issues and climate change overall may require thinking differently about how, where, and why cities grow in the future.
In an article for The Guardian, Gaia Vince described what climate migration might look like in the future and how countries can prepare. She said that research from the United Nations predicts that more than 1 billion people may have to leave their homes in the next 30 years, mostly from countries in the Global South. She said that developed countries in North America and Europe, which have older and smaller populations, could benefit from helping these people settle in their countries. Vince believes that climate migration can help solve some of the world’s problems instead of just being a problem itself. Right now, there is no global group focused only on climate migration, but Vince says new policies that help the environment are still possible. She used the example of how Europe quickly created open-border policies and job rights for Ukrainian refugees fleeing the 2022 war. These policies helped save lives and avoided the slow and complicated processes that other migrants often face. Vince said that the policies used for Ukrainian refugees could be a model for how developed countries can prepare for climate migrants in the future.
In the UK, researchers are studying how climate change will affect the countries that people move to, based on the strength of those countries’ infrastructure. They want to create plans that allow people who must move to travel across Europe and have clear emergency plans so that people displaced by climate change can leave quickly, whether the changes happen slowly or suddenly. The goal of this research is to find the best ways to help people who are forced to leave their homes because of environmental disasters.
Society and culture
A documentary titled Climate Refugees was released in 2010. It was chosen to be part of the 2010 Sundance Film Festival. More recently, a short documentary called Sun Come Up (2011) was nominated for an Academy Award. This film shares the story of Carteret islanders in Papua New Guinea, who are leaving their home due to climate change and moving to Bougainville, a region affected by war. Since 2007, German artist Hermann Josef Hack has displayed his artwork called World Climate Refugee Camp in cities across Europe. The artwork includes about 1,000 small tents and shows how climate change affects people’s lives.
Other books, such as The Water Knife by Paolo Bacigalupi, also describe how climate change causes people to move. This book focuses on climate-related displacement and migration in the American Southwest.