Water conflict in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) mainly involves three major river systems: the Jordan River Basin, the Tigris-Euphrates River Basin, and the Nile River Basin. The MENA region covers about 11.1 million square kilometers. There are three major deserts in the MENA region:
Additionally, much of Iran is covered in desert. In 65% of the region, the average yearly rainfall is less than 100 mm. Between 100 and 300 mm of rain falls in 15% of the region, and more than 300 mm of rain falls in the remaining area. These conditions are likely to become more severe and complex as the full effects of climate change on the Middle East and North Africa develop throughout the 21st century.
Jordan River Basin
The Jordan River has three main sources: the Hasbani River (annual stable flow of 250 Mm), the Banias River (annual stable flow of 125 Mm), and the Dan River (annual stable flow of 250 Mm). These rivers begin in Lebanon, Syria, and Israel, respectively. They combine in Lake Huleh and then flow south as the Jordan River. Just south of Tiberias, the Yarmuk River joins the Jordan River. The Jordan River flows for about 350 km, starting in the foothills of Mount Hermon in the north and ending in the Dead Sea to the south. The river has an estimated flow of 1880 MCM/Y, with 73 percent of the water coming from Arab countries and 27 percent from Israel. A September 2000 USAF study found that over 90% of Syria’s water is shared with neighboring countries, including Iraq, Turkey, Israel, Lebanon, and Jordan. About 36 percent of Jordan’s water sources are shared with Syria, the West Bank, and Israel. More than half of Israel’s water is shared with Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and the West Bank.
Further north, the Litani River and Orontes River form part of the northern Levant watershed. Though their sources are close, the Litani flows south and west to the Mediterranean near Tyre, passing only through Lebanon. The Orontes flows north into Syria and enters the Mediterranean near Antioch. The Litani has an estimated annual flow of 410 MCM/Y and has been the focus of proposed water projects by Syria, Jordan, and Israel.
Syria, Lebanon, and Israel all have underground freshwater sources. Israel has two main underground aquifers that provide fresh water. The Mountain Aquifer is located under the West Bank and adds 679 Mm of water annually, with 78 Mm being brackish. The Mountain Aquifer has three main basins: the Eastern Basin, the Western Basin, and the Northeastern Basin. The Eastern Basin is the smallest in terms of water quantity but the largest in area, covering about 3260 km². The Western Basin holds the most water and covers about 1780 km². The Northeastern Basin covers about 610 km². The Coastal Aquifer, along the Mediterranean Coast, adds 330 Mm of water annually.
The Jordan River Basin is one of the driest areas in the world. Israel and northwestern Jordan receive about 1190 cm of rainfall each year, but little of this water can be used. Only Kuwait, Libya, Oman, and Singapore receive less rain annually than Jordan or Israel. Syria and Lebanon get enough rain to support farming and recharge underground water sources. In northern Jordan and Israel, rainfall averages 110 cm per year, while central Jordan and the West Bank receive 20 MCM/Y of rainfall. Only 3 MCM/Y of this water is usable.
Israel uses about 850 MCM/Y of groundwater, with 400 MCM/Y coming from the Mountain Aquifer. In 1964, Israel began taking 320 MCM/Y from the Jordan River for the National Water Carrier. By 1967, Israel was using nearly 70 percent of the Jordan River’s water before it reached the West Bank. In the 1980s, Israeli settlers used seven times more water than Arab farmers. A 2000 study showed Israel uses 1180 MCM/Y, or 62 percent of its total water, for agriculture. Jordan uses 67 MCM/Y, or 74 percent of its total water, for farming. About 48 percent of Israel’s average annual water use (1,950 MCM/Y) comes from areas captured in 1967, including 400 MCM/Y from groundwater in the West Bank and 450 MCM/Y from the upper Jordan River and the Golan Heights. By 1981, Israel was using 99 percent of its available water resources.
During the British Mandate of Palestine (1913–1948), three irrigation systems existed on the eastern slopes of the Judaean Mountains. The Wadi Qelt aqueduct provided 3 MCM/Y of fresh water to Jericho from springs in Ein Fara, Ein Fawar, and Ein Qelt. The Wadi Uja aqueduct supplied 7 MCM/Y of water to the Uja Valley from the Ein Uja spring. The Wadi Faria aqueduct transported 5 MCM/Y of water from springs in Ein Shibli, Ein Isca, and Ein Baidan to the Giftlik. Under Roman rule, aqueducts in Nablus and Jerusalem added 3 MCM/Y of water to Sabastia and Jerusalem. During the Mandate, 200 small groundwater springs and rainwater collected in cisterns provided an additional 5 MCM/Y of water during rainy years. Two electric power plants added 2 MCM/Y of water to Jerusalem and Ramallah, bringing the maximum water supply in the region to 25 MCM/Y.
Several plans aimed to manage the region’s water resources during the British Mandate. The Ionides Plan of 1939 suggested storing floodwaters from the Yarm
Nile River Basin
The Nile River is a major water source that flows through 10 different countries. These countries include Sudan, South Sudan, Burundi, Rwanda, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, and Egypt. The Nile is the longest river in the world. It is the main water source in North Africa, and about 40% of Africa’s people live in the area where the Nile flows. The Nile has two main branches: the White Nile and the Blue Nile. The White Nile is longer and begins in central Africa, near Burundi or Rwanda. It flows through Tanzania, Lake Victoria, Uganda, and South Sudan. The Blue Nile starts in Ethiopia, from Lake Tana, and flows into Sudan. Most of the water in the Nile comes from Ethiopia. The two branches meet near Khartoum, Sudan, and then flow north through Egypt into the Mediterranean Sea.
Water is a key cause of conflict in Sudan. Sudan is divided into a northern and southern region. The North is more crowded and mostly populated by Arab Muslims. The Nile runs through the North, but much of its water comes from the South. The South has less people but is more fertile and receives more rain. It has many streams and springs. Drought, desertification, and the need for more food have led northern people to move south for land and resources. Northern farmers use machines that harm southern farming. Southern people formed a group called the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) to fight against northern control.
Water-related conflicts in Sudan often involve building canals or farming projects. One example is the Jonglei Canal, started in 1978. The project aimed to drain wetlands to create farmland and save water lost to evaporation. The Sudanese and Egyptian governments supported the project. The canal is very large, 210 feet wide and 16 feet deep. However, the project threatened the lives of about 1.7 million people who lived in the swamps. In 1974, people in southern Sudan protested in Juba, and the SPLA began attacking the canal’s construction. The project was stopped in 1984, with 250 of 360 kilometers built.
Northern farmers using machines in southern Sudan also caused conflict. The Arab-led government wanted to develop agriculture in the South, and northern farmers moved into the area. This threatened the Nilotic tribes, who raised cattle in the South. Southerners fought back with violence.
Another conflict arose when the Sudanese government planned to build the Kajbar Dam on the Nile. The dam would have forced the relocation of the Nubian people, whose homeland had already been flooded by Egypt’s Aswan High Dam in the 1950s. Many Sudanese protested, and some Nubian groups threatened to commit mass suicide to stop the dam. They refused offers of money from the government.
Water issues also cause problems between countries. Egypt uses 99% of the Nile’s water, but most of the water does not come from within Egypt. Countries downstream, like Egypt, often have conflicts with upstream countries over water use.
In the early 1900s, a shortage of cotton pushed Egypt and Sudan to grow more cotton. Cotton needs a lot of water, which was hard to get in the region. This led to water projects along the Nile, causing clashes between the British (who controlled Sudan at the time) and local people. After World War I, a commission was formed in 1920 to plan water use. The commission estimated Egypt needed 58 billion cubic meters of water per year and Sudan could use the Blue Nile’s water for farming. However, no action was taken on the plan. In 1929, Egypt and Sudan signed an agreement that gave Egypt 48 billion cubic meters of water and Sudan 4 billion cubic meters. But Egypt was allowed to use all the Nile’s water between January 20 and July 15 each year.
In the 1950s, Egypt built the Aswan High Dam without Sudan’s agreement. Negotiations with Sudan failed in 1954 and 1955. Tensions grew in 1958 after Egypt tried to take land near Sudan’s border. Sudan built the Sennar Dam in 1959, rejecting the 1929 agreement. In 1959, Egypt and Sudan signed the Nile Waters Treaty. The treaty gave Egypt 55.5 billion cubic meters of water and Sudan 18.5 billion cubic meters per year. Extra water from changes in the river’s flow would be split equally. Sudan would also lend Egypt 1.5 billion cubic meters of water until 1977. Any future projects that increased the Nile’s water flow would be shared equally. Egypt agreed to pay Sudan 15 million British pounds for past flooding caused by Egyptian projects. The treaty also created a group to help solve future water disputes. Both countries agreed to the terms.
Tigris-Euphrates River Basin
The Tigris-Euphrates River Basin includes the Tigris River and the Euphrates River, along with smaller rivers that flow into them. Both rivers begin in southeastern Turkey. The Tigris flows from Turkey, following the border between Turkey and Syria for 32 kilometers before moving south through Iraq. The Euphrates flows from Turkey into Syria from the north, then continues through Iraq. The two rivers join in Iraq to form the Shatt Al-Arab, which flows south into the Persian Gulf.
Water-related political issues in the region have existed for many years. In the 1960s, growing populations caused each country to develop water resources on its own. Turkey built the Keban Dam between 1965 and 1973, and Syria built the Tabqa Dam during the same time. Despite discussions between countries, including the Soviet Union, no formal agreements were made when the dams were completed in 1973. As the dams filled, less water reached downstream areas. In 1974, Syria allowed an extra 200 million cubic meters of water per year to flow from the Tabqa Dam to Iraq. However, the following year, Iraq asked the Arab League to help because water flow had dropped from 920 cubic meters per second to 197 cubic meters per second. Syria claimed that water flow into its country had decreased by more than 50%.
After disagreements, Syria left an Arab League committee meant to resolve the dispute. Tensions rose in May 1975 when Syria closed its airspace to Iraqi flights and both countries increased military forces near their borders. Saudi Arabia helped calm the situation, leading to an agreement that avoided violence. The agreement’s details were not shared publicly, but Iraqi sources said Syria could keep 40% of the Euphrates’ water for itself, while 60% would flow to Iraq.
The Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) remains a source of conflict. GAP is a large hydroelectric project with 21 dams and 19 power plants. It aims to produce 26 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity and irrigate 1.65 million hectares of land. In 1987, Turkey’s leader, Turgut Ozal, reportedly agreed to allow at least 500 million cubic meters of water per year to flow to Syria. In 1990, talks between Turkey, Syria, and Iraq were held after Turkey blocked the Euphrates for 30 days by closing the Atatürk Dam’s gates. Iraq demanded Turkey allow at least 500 million cubic meters of water per year to Syria, but discussions stopped due to the start of the first Gulf War. Talks in 1992 after the war did not result in an agreement.
In 2020, Iraqi officials said the Ilısu Dam reduced Tigris River water levels, causing shortages in Iraqi plains. Kurdish farmers in northern Iraq warned of a "catastrophe" after Iran stopped water from the Sirwan and Lower Zab rivers from reaching two dams. Syrian villagers also accused Turkey of reducing Euphrates water levels to 200 cubic meters per second, which is 300 cubic meters per second less than the agreed amount. Turkish-backed Syrian rebels blocked water from a pumping station near Ras al-Ain, causing drinking water shortages in Al-Hasakah Governorate. In May 2021, Euphrates water flow from Turkey to Syria dropped again to nearly 200 cubic meters per second, leading to electricity shortages. At the same time, water from Turkey to Iraq decreased by 50% for both the Tigris and Euphrates. Water from Iran to the Darbandikhan Dam and Lower Zab River also dropped to nearly zero and 70% less, respectively.
Blue Peace
Water conflicts in the Middle East may become worse soon because of disagreements about how water is shared, used, and managed. The strong competition for water could even cause wars in the region. This is why working together is important to stop conflicts and wars from happening.
The Blue Peace method helps turn water issues that cross country borders into chances for countries to work together. This method has worked well in areas like the Middle East and the Nile basin. It was created by the Strategic Foresight Group with help from the governments of Switzerland and Sweden. A recent report called "Water Cooperation for a Secure World" shows that when countries work together on water issues, the risk of war decreases. This finding comes from studying water relationships in more than 200 shared river basins across 148 countries. In the Middle East, countries are at risk of war because they have not worked together for too long. The report includes examples of successful cooperation that Middle Eastern countries can use.
Water security problems have serious human costs and greatly affect the Middle East. When water is not secure, it often leads to problems like poverty, war, low development for women, and harm to the environment. These effects were reported in two studies from 2015: "The Hydro Insecure: Crisis of Survival in the Middle East" and "Water and Violence: Crisis of Survival in the Middle East."
Helmand River Basin
The Helmand River water agreement was signed in 1972 between Iran and Afghanistan. The agreement includes 16 articles. However, Iran has always claimed that Afghanistan is not required to follow the rules of the agreement.