Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are promises that countries make to lower their greenhouse gas emissions as part of efforts to address climate change. These promises include plans and actions needed to reach the goals set in the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement aims to limit the rise in global surface temperature to well below 2 °C (3.6 °F) above pre-industrial levels. It also prefers that the increase stay no higher than 1.5 °C (2.7 °F). To meet these goals, countries must reduce emissions as quickly and as much as possible. To stay below 1.5 °C of warming, emissions must decrease by about 50% by 2030. This number considers the promises each country has made through its NDCs.

NDCs show how each country plans to lower its emissions and prepare for the effects of climate change. The Paris Agreement requires all 195 participating countries to create, share, and update their NDCs every five years. The NDCs due before the 2025 United Nations Climate Change Conference are called NDC 3.0, and some countries have already shared them. Some NDCs include additional information to help others understand and compare the plans clearly.

Before the Paris Agreement in 2015, these promises were called intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) and were not legally required. INDCs were voluntary pledges, while NDCs are stronger commitments but still not legally binding.

To likely meet the 2 °C goal in the Paris Agreement, emission reductions must increase by 80% beyond current NDCs (data from 2021). The chance of major emitters meeting their NDCs without this increase is very low. With current trends, the chance of staying below 2 °C of warming is only 5%. If all signatory countries met their NDCs and continued reducing emissions after 2030, the chance would be 26%.

Role within Paris Agreement

Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are important for the Paris Agreement and its long-term goals. Each country decides how much it will contribute to meet the treaty’s aims. These plans are called NDCs because they are created by each country. Article 3 of the agreement says NDCs must be strong efforts to reach the agreement’s goals and must improve over time. Countries must update their NDCs every five years, and these updates must be sent to the UNFCCC Secretariat. Each new plan must be more ambitious than the one before, following the principle of progression. Countries can work together and combine their NDCs. The Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) made during the 2015 Climate Change Conference become NDCs once a country agrees to the Paris Agreement, unless the country provides a new update.

The Paris Agreement does not require countries to use a specific format for their NDCs. At a minimum, NDCs must include plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. They may also include plans for helping countries adapt to climate change, providing financial support, sharing technology, building skills, and ensuring transparency. Some parts of NDCs are unconditional, meaning they do not depend on other factors. Other parts depend on things like receiving financial or technical help, the actions of other countries, or details of the Paris Agreement that are still being decided. Most NDCs include some conditional parts.

While the NDCs themselves are not legally required, the process for creating and updating them is. Countries must prepare, share, and update their NDCs every five years. They must also provide information about how they are carrying out their plans. There is no system to force a country to set a target by a certain date or to meet its targets. Instead, there will be a system that publicly names countries that do not take action, or as János Pásztor, a former U.N. official, said, a "name and encourage" plan.

Process

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) mix a top-down approach of traditional international agreements with a bottom-up method, where countries set their own goals and policies based on their unique national situations, abilities, and priorities. The main aim is to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions enough to keep human-caused temperature increases below 2 °C (3.6 °F) compared to pre-industrial times, and to work toward limiting the increase to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F).

NDCs include steps to cut emissions and address ways to adapt to climate change impacts, as well as what support a country needs or will provide to handle these challenges. After countries submitted their initial Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) in March 2015, an assessment phase occurred to evaluate the impact of these INDCs before the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference.

Information from individual country reports and reviews, along with the broader picture from the "global stocktake," will help shape future NDCs. This process allows domestic and international political actions to influence more ambitious commitments and encourage countries to meet their goals.

NDCs are the first greenhouse gas targets under the UNFCCC that apply equally to developed and developing countries.

NDCs must be set every five years and registered by the UNFCCC Secretariat. This timeframe allows for updates to reflect changes in circumstances or greater ambitions.

NDCs are created independently by countries or groups of countries. However, they are set within a binding, ongoing framework designed to increase climate action over time. After submitting initial NDCs, countries are expected to update them every five years. Biennial progress reports will track progress toward NDC goals and be reviewed technically. These reports will contribute to the global stocktake, which also occurs every five years to assess whether NDCs collectively are sufficient.

Current status

Through the Climate Change Performance Index, Climate Action Tracker, and the Climate Clock, people can view online how well each country is progressing toward meeting its Paris Agreement goals. These tools provide basic information about the overall progress of all countries and individual nations in reducing emissions. However, they do not show how much each country plans to reduce emissions for each action outlined in its nationally determined contribution (NDC).

The third round of NDCs includes targets for the year 2035. The official deadline for submitting these plans was February 2025. However, most countries submit their plans late. By February 25, 2026, 133 countries had submitted a new NDC.

Sustainable Development Goal 13 on climate action includes an indicator related to NDCs for its second target: Indicator 13.2.1 measures "the number of countries with nationally determined contributions, long-term strategies, national adaptation plans, strategies as reported in adaptation communications and national communications."

Challenges

Countries have challenges when putting their climate action plans into practice. These include getting political support to coordinate actions related to these plans and ensuring they are carried out. Also, countries often struggle with limited resources needed to create and carry out climate change policies.

To likely meet the goal of keeping global warming below 2°C, as set by the Paris Agreement, emissions reductions must be 80% higher than what current climate action plans require. The chance of major emitters meeting their climate goals without this increase is very small. With current trends, there is only a 5% chance of keeping warming below 2°C. However, if all countries that signed the agreement met their climate goals and continued doing so after 2030, the chance would rise to 26%.

History

NDCs have their beginning in a system called the pledge and review process, which international climate change negotiators discussed in the early 1990s. All countries that were part of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) were asked to share their intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) during the 2013 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Warsaw, Poland. These contributions were created without deciding whether they would have legal requirements. The term "INDC" was used as a middle ground between "quantified emissions limitation and reduction objective" (QELROs) and "Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions" (NAMAs), which the Kyoto Protocol used to describe the different responsibilities of developed and developing countries.

After the Paris Agreement became active in 2016, the INDCs became the first NDCs when a country agreed to the agreement, unless the country chose to submit a new NDC at the same time. NDCs are the first greenhouse gas targets under the UNFCCC that apply to both developed and developing countries equally.

On February 27, 2015, Switzerland was the first country to submit its INDC. Switzerland reported that temperatures had risen by 1.75°C since 1864 and aimed to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030.

India shared its INDC with the UNFCCC in October 2015, promising to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33–35% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. India also stated it would need at least USD 2.5 trillion to meet its goals from 2015 to 2030 and noted that its "international climate finance needs" would depend on the difference between what it can fund itself and what is available from other countries.

Of the countries surveyed, 85% said they faced challenges due to the short time available to create their INDCs. Other challenges included difficulty in getting support from high-level leaders, uncertainty about what should be included in INDCs, and a lack of technical knowledge to evaluate options. However, less than a quarter of countries said they received help from other nations to prepare their INDCs, and more than a quarter said they were still seeking such help. The process of creating INDCs and the challenges involved are different for each country, and there is no single method that works for all.