Climate change poses serious risks to the long-term livability of Tuvalu, an island nation with a land area of 26 square kilometers (10 square miles) and an average elevation of less than 2 meters (6.6 feet) above sea level. The highest point, Niulakita, reaches about 4.6 meters (15 feet) above sea level. Threats from climate change include rising sea levels, stronger tropical cyclones, higher temperatures, and droughts. King tides, combined with storm surges and rising seas, can flood low-lying atolls.

Tuvalu is often seen as one of the first countries likely to be greatly affected by rising sea levels caused by global climate change. Some estimates suggest that by the middle of the 21st century, the highest tides could regularly flood 50% of Funafuti, the capital’s land area, and 95% by 2100. Rising saltwater levels could also damage deep-rooted food crops like coconut, pulaka, and taro before actual flooding occurs. However, a 2018 study from the University of Auckland found that Tuvalu’s islands may remain habitable for the next century, noting that their total area has grown in recent decades. The study emphasized that climate change remains a major threat to Pacific island nations, with rising seas and climate shifts endangering their existence.

According to the Human Rights Measurement Initiative, the climate crisis has worsened human rights conditions in Tuvalu significantly (5.4 out of 6). Experts note that the climate crisis has affected food, water, and housing security and has led to forced migration.

In 2020, Funafuti had an installed photovoltaic (solar) power capacity of 735 kilowatts, compared to 1,800 kilowatts from diesel generators (16% solar use).

The South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission (SOPAC) states that while Tuvalu is vulnerable to climate change, other environmental issues, such as population growth and poor coastal management, also impact sustainable development. SOPAC ranks Tuvalu as extremely vulnerable on the Environmental Vulnerability Index.

Greenhouse gas emissions

On November 27, 2015, the government of Tuvalu shared its plans to reduce greenhouse gases. These plans are part of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. They explain how Tuvalu intends to lower the amount of greenhouse gases it produces.

Impacts on the natural environment

Tuvalu faces challenges to its natural environment that will become worse because of climate change. These challenges include coastal erosion, saltwater entering the land, and more diseases spread by insects and water due to rising sea levels.

Tuvalu works with the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) to address environmental issues. The climate in the Pacific region near the equator is influenced by many factors, and scientists are still studying these factors. SPREP describes Tuvalu’s climate as follows:

Sea levels in Tuvalu change because of many atmospheric and ocean-related influences. A 2011 report by the Pacific Climate Change Science Program, published by the Australian Government, explains that sea levels near the equator have a strong east-to-west slope. Sea levels west of the International Date Line (180° longitude) are about half a meter higher than in the eastern Pacific and South American coastal areas. Trade winds push surface water westward, creating this slope. Below the equator, higher sea levels are found about 20° to 40° south (Tuvalu is located between 6° and 10° south).

The 2011 report also explains that yearly changes in sea levels are influenced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The Pacific (inter-)decadal oscillation is a climate pattern that shifts between periods of El Niño and La Niña. During El Niño events, sea levels can drop by 20–30 centimeters compared to La Niña events. For example, in 2000, the climate shifted from El Niño to La Niña, causing higher sea levels and more frequent high tides. Perigean spring tides, also called king tides, can flood low-lying areas of Tuvalu’s islands.

A 2011 report about Tuvalu’s future over the 21st century includes these projections:
– Air and sea surface temperatures are expected to rise (very high confidence).
– Rainfall is expected to increase (high confidence).
– Extreme heat and rainfall days are expected to become more frequent and intense (very high and high confidence).
– Droughts are expected to decrease (moderate confidence).
– Tropical cyclones may decrease in the southeast Pacific Ocean (moderate confidence).

Sea level data for the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) has been collected at two locations in Funafuti lagoon. In 1978, a tide gauge was installed at Funafuti by the University of Hawaii. The University of Hawai‘i Sea Level Center operated a tide gauge from 1979 to 2001. Since 1993, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s National Tidal Centre has used an Aquatrak acoustic gauge. This was done because there were concerns about the accuracy of the earlier data. The gauge was installed by the Australian National Tidal Facility as part of the AusAID-sponsored South Pacific Sea Level and Climate Monitoring Project.

The two tide gauge records were combined into one data source by averaging the differences between them during the time both operated together.

Analysis of 15.5 years of sea level data from Funafuti showed a sea level rise rate of 5.9 millimeters per year (from 1993 to September 2008). During that time, sea levels in Funafuti rose about 9.14 centimeters.

The data also showed the effects of four El Niño events, including a severe one in 1997/98, which caused a significant drop in sea levels. The usual rising trend was temporarily reversed to a falling trend during this event. During strong El Niño events, high air pressure in the western Pacific causes an inverted barometric pressure effect on sea levels.

The highest point in Tuvalu is 4.6 meters (15 feet) above sea level on Niulakita, making Tuvalu the second-lowest country in terms of maximum elevation (after the Maldives). However, the highest areas are often narrow storm dunes on the ocean side of the islands, which can be flooded during tropical cyclones. For example, Cyclone Bebe caused damage. In March 2015, Cyclone Pam created waves 3 to 5 meters (9.8 to 16.4 feet) high, damaging homes, crops, and infrastructure on Nui. Freshwater sources were destroyed or contaminated.

Tuvalu is also affected by king tides, which raise sea levels higher than normal high tides. The highest recorded tide was 3.4 meters (11 feet) on February 24, 2006, and again on February 19, 2015. These king tides, combined with rising sea levels from La Niña events or local storms, lead to flooding in low-lying areas. In the future, a sea level rise of 20–40 centimeters (7.9–15.7 inches) over the next 100 years could make Tuvalu uninhabitable.

Atolls in Tuvalu have shown resilience to gradual sea-level rise. Atolls and reef islands can grow by producing sand and broken coral that accumulates during cyclones. However, tropical cyclones can remove vegetation and soil from low-lying islands, reducing their stability. For example, Tepuka Vili Vili islet in Funafuti was destroyed by Cyclone Meli in 1979, and Vasafua islet was severely damaged by Cyclone Pam in 2015. Cyclone Pam, which did not directly hit the islands, caused damage to homes, crops, and water supplies, increasing the risk of waterborne diseases.

Between 1971 and 2014, during a period of global warming, Tuvalu’s islands grew in size, according to a study by the University of Auckland using aerial and satellite images. Over four decades, the total land area in Tuvalu increased by 73.5 hectares (2.9%). This growth varied across the islands, with land gains observed in eight of nine atolls and 74% of islands, while land losses occurred in one atoll and 27% of islands.

Sea levels at the Funafuti tide gauge have risen 3.9 millimeters per year, about twice the global average. This may be because gradual sea-level rise allows coral polyps to grow and raise the atolls with the rising sea level. However, if sea levels rise faster than coral can grow, or if ocean acidification harms coral polyps, the resilience of atolls and reef islands may be reduced.

Prime Minister Enele Sopoaga has responded to the University of Auckland study by stating that Tuvalu is not expanding and has gained no additional habitable land. Tuvaluans point to observable changes in their islands as evidence of growth.

Impacts on people

Scientific studies suggest that Tuvalu may become too hard to live in by the end of this century because of rising sea levels. However, a 2018 study from the University of Auckland found that the islands had gained more land in recent decades than they had lost, which suggests that Tuvalu may remain a place where people can live for the next 100 years. This could allow people to adapt to changes instead of being forced to leave. Despite these findings, the Prime Minister of Tuvalu said, "Tuvalu is not expanding" and that "the growth of the shoreline does not mean more land is available for living."

Some people have suggested that the people of Tuvalu should move to countries like Australia, New Zealand, or Kioa in Fiji. In 2006, Maatia Toafa, who was Prime Minister at the time, said his government did not believe rising sea levels would require the entire population to leave. In 2013, Prime Minister Enele Sopoaga said that moving Tuvaluans to avoid sea level rise "should never be an option" because it would not help. He added that it is important to encourage people around the world to support action on climate change.

As of 2023, the government of Prime Minister Kausea Natano planned to make key areas of Tuvalu stronger to handle rising sea levels and climate changes. The government also acknowledged that "Plan B" would involve evacuating the islands if needed, while trying to keep Tuvaluan culture and community alive through digital tools, such as a virtual reality version of the country. In November 2023, it was announced that Australia would offer 280 Tuvalu citizens affected by climate change permanent residency each year as part of a larger agreement.

After becoming Prime Minister in February 2024, Feleti Teo said his government's top priority was addressing climate change.

Climate change in Tuvalu is expected to increase the spread of certain diseases, such as diarrhea, respiratory illnesses, and problems with food supplies. Droughts, like the one in Tuvalu in 2011, have caused water shortages and problems with sanitation. These conditions have led to more cases of acute respiratory infections, viral illnesses, skin diseases, septic sores, and infections like cholera, diarrhea, and typhoid.

Climate change is expected to make the following problems worse:

• Salinization of pulaka (Cyrtosperma merkusii) pits due to saltwater entering the soil; and
• A decrease in fish populations. The El Niño weather pattern has affected tuna catches, which led to fewer foreign fishing licenses being given by the government of Tuvalu after the El Niño period from 1998 to 2001, and up to 2005.

Climate change is also expected to cause a lack of clean drinking water because of less rainfall and longer droughts.

Mitigation and adaptation

In a speech on September 16, 2005, to the 60th Session of the UN General Assembly, Prime Minister Maatia Toafa explained that climate change is an important security issue connected to protecting the environment. Living on islands that are very sensitive to changes, Tuvalu’s long-term safety and ability to grow in a sustainable way depend on addressing climate change, protecting nature, and managing limited resources like forests and water.

The danger of climate change does not cause most Tuvaluans to move away from their homes. Many choose to stay because of their love for their lifestyle, culture, and identity. In 2013, Prime Minister Enele Sopoaga said that moving Tuvaluans to avoid rising sea levels should not be considered because it would not solve the problem. He urged people in the Pacific and around the world to encourage their leaders to act responsibly to help Tuvalu.

A 2013 report by the Asian Development Bank called The Economics of Climate Change in the Pacific estimated the possible economic effects of climate change in the Pacific region, including on farming, fishing, tourism, coral reefs, and health. Farming crops like taro are especially at risk. By 2100, Pacific countries may face economic losses equal to 4.6% to 12.7% of the region’s yearly income, depending on how much carbon dioxide is released into the atmosphere.

On January 16, 2014, Prime Minister Enele Sopoaga created the National Advisory Council on Climate Change. The council’s job is to find ways to save energy, use more renewable energy, work with businesses and groups to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and ensure all government agencies help Tuvalu adapt to climate change and reduce disaster risks. It also encourages the development of local solutions to climate challenges.

At the 20th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in December 2014 in Lima, Peru, Sopoaga said, “Climate change is the biggest challenge facing my country. It is threatening the lives, safety, and well-being of all Tuvaluans.”

Tuvalu’s Te Kakeega III – National Strategy for Sustainable Development-2016-2020 outlines the country’s development goals. This plan includes new areas of focus, such as climate change, the environment, migration, and the protection of oceans and seas.

Tuvalu’s National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) describes how local groups on each island will work with community leaders (called Falekaupule) to address climate change. The Department of Environment is responsible for organizing efforts by non-governmental organizations, religious groups, and other stakeholders. Each group helps carry out NAPA, which aims to adapt to the effects of climate change and human activities.

In 2015, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) helped Tuvalu buy a 30-meter (98-foot) boat called MV Talamoana. This boat is used to transport government workers and project staff to outer islands as part of NAPA.

In August 2017, Tuvalu and the UNDP launched the Tuvalu Coastal Adaptation Project (TCAP), funded by $36 million from the Green Climate Fund and $2.9 million from Tuvalu’s government. TCAP focuses on building infrastructure like roads, schools, hospitals, and government buildings to protect against rising seas and stronger waves. The project aims to strengthen coastal areas on three of Tuvalu’s nine inhabited islands over seven years.

In 2020, environmental and social impact studies were released for plans to build coastal defenses on Funafuti, Nanumaga, and Nanumea to reduce flooding and erosion. On Funafuti, the project includes a land reclamation plan near Queen Elizabeth Park, which involves dredging sand from the lagoon. On Nanumaga, barriers will be built on natural storm berm crests. On Nanumea, barriers will protect 1,500 meters of shoreline, and a new seawall will be built near the church after consulting with local leaders.

In December 2022, work began on the Funafuti reclamation project. This project involves digging sand from the lagoon to create a platform on Fongafale, Funafuti, measuring 780 meters long and 100 meters wide. The platform is designed to stay above sea level and storm waves even after 2100.

In 2016, Tuvalu created the Tuvalu Survival Fund (TSF) to support climate change programs and respond to natural disasters like tropical cyclones. Funding for the TSF comes from the national budget.

In November 2022, Simon Kofe, Minister for Justice, Communication, and Foreign Affairs, announced that Tuvalu would move its presence to the metaverse to preserve the country’s identity if rising seas make the islands uninhabitable.

On October 1, 2023, Tuvalu’s constitution was changed to state that the country will always exist, even if its land disappears due to climate change. The government hopes to keep control of its territorial waters and economic zone in this situation. If other countries adopt similar ideas, international laws may change to support them.

Climate and Disaster Resilience Development Policy Financing

On September 26, 2023, the World Bank approved US$11.5 million (AUD$18 million) in new grant funding for Tuvalu as part of the World Bank’s First Climate and Disaster Resilience Development Policy Financing program. This support includes a development policy grant of US$7.5 million (AUD$11.8 million) to help Tuvalu’s National Disaster Management Office coordinate post-disaster response efforts. It also supports the work of Tuvalu’s National Building Code Assessment Unit, part of the Public Works Department, to create more disaster-resilient infrastructure. The program also includes a Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Option (Cat DDO) of US$4 million (AUD$6.3 million), which provides funds to Tuvalu if a natural disaster occurs. The grant aims to improve monitoring and reporting of Tuvalu’s climate and disaster risks and to help the government deliver critical supplies to Tuvalu’s islands quickly after emergencies.

In December 2009, Tuvalu paused talks at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen because some developing countries were not fully committed to binding agreements on reducing carbon emissions. Tuvalu’s chief negotiator stated, “Tuvalu is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change, and our future rests on the outcome of this meeting.” When the conference did not reach a binding agreement, Tuvalu’s representative, Ian Fry, said, “It looks like we are being offered 30 pieces of silver to betray our people and our future… Our future is not for sale. I regret to inform you that Tuvalu cannot accept this document.”

Fry’s speech was a strong request for global action to address man-made global warming and its effects on climate change. He spoke about the dangers of rising sea levels to Tuvalu and the world, calling man-made global warming “the greatest threat to humanity.” He ended his speech with the statement, “the fate of my country rests in your hands.”

At the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21), Prime Minister Enele Sopoaga said the goal should be to limit global temperature rise to below 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels, a position supported by the Alliance of Small Island States. Ms. Pepetua Latasi, Tuvalu’s Chief Negotiator, represented the country during these talks. In his speech to leaders, Prime Minister Sopoaga said, “The goal for COP21 should be a global temperature goal of below 1.5 degrees Celsius relative to pre-industrial levels.”

The countries participating in the Paris Agreement agreed to reduce carbon emissions as soon as possible and to keep global warming “to well below 2 degrees Celsius.” Enele Sopoaga highlighted the Paris Agreement’s outcomes, including support for small island states and least developed countries to address climate-related loss and damage, as well as the goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.

Society and culture

In November 2011, Tuvalu became one of eight founding members of the Polynesian Leaders Group, a group formed to work together on different topics such as culture, education, climate change, and trade. Tuvalu is part of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), a group of small island and coastal countries that worry about how climate change affects them. The Sopoaga Ministry, led by Enele Sopoaga, agreed to the Majuro Declaration on September 5, 2013. This agreement aimed to use 100% renewable energy for power between 2013 and 2020. The plan included solar power for 95% of energy needs and biodiesel for 5%. The possibility of using wind power will also be studied.

On September 23, 2013, Marshall Islands President Christopher Loeak gave the Majuro Declaration to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon during a United Nations meeting. The declaration was called a "Pacific gift" to encourage stronger global action on climate change than what was achieved at the 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference. On September 29, 2013, Deputy Prime Minister Vete Sakaio ended his speech at the United Nations General Assembly by asking the world to help protect Tuvalu from climate change, saying, "Please save Tuvalu against climate change. Save Tuvalu to save yourself and the world."

Women from Tuvalu, like Moira Simmons-Avafoa, and others from Pacific nations have been encouraged to share their views on how climate change affects women and children.

On October 27, 2021, Simon Kofe, Tuvalu’s Foreign Minister, started the "Future Now Project" (Te Ataeao Nei Project in Tuvaluan). The project’s first step focused on using Tuvaluan values, such as communal living, shared responsibility, and being a good neighbor, to guide diplomacy. This approach was also part of Tuvalu’s 2020 Foreign Policy (Te Sikulagi).

Simon Kofe also helped write changes to Tuvalu’s Constitution as chair of the Constitutional Review Parliamentary Select Committee. On September 5, 2023, Tuvalu’s parliament passed the Constitution of Tuvalu Act 2023. These changes took effect on October 1, 2023.

The 2023 Constitution changes include a new way to define the boundaries of Tuvalu. The government of Tuvalu says there are no international laws that can recognize Tuvalu’s new situation because climate change is not covered in the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.

Other Pacific countries support Tuvalu’s position on how climate change affects their borders. Leaders from the Pacific Islands Forum published a statement on August 6, 2021, saying that their countries’ maritime zones, as defined by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, will remain unchanged even if sea levels rise due to climate change.